Gazprom Threatens to Cut Gas Supplies to Europe via Ukraine

Russia’s state-owned gas company Gazprom said on Tuesday that it could reduce gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine as of next Monday after claiming that some volumes through Ukraine are diverted from Moldova. Despite cutting off most volumes, Russia still sends gas to Europe via one route through Ukraine and TurkStream. Additional curbs would come as weather in Europe is becoming colder after higher than expected temperatures in October and early November, which allowed the continent to fill up gas stocks.

Gazprom said it had noticed some of the gas intended for Moldova under contract is being diverted by Ukraine. The Russian company added that if the imbalance in gas transit continues, it will start reducing gas flows via Ukraine on Nov. 28.

Europe’s benchmark gas prices rose by 2% after Gazprom’s announcement on Tuesday.

Although Europe is prepared for this winter with full gas storage levels and a steady flow of LNG imports, lower supplies from Russia means those storages will be consumed more quickly, leaving less for next winter, which is the real concern througout the continent.

Ahead of the 2023/2024 winter, the gap in gas supply in Europe will be much wider without Russian gas. Europe will not be importing much Russian gas, or none if Moscow cuts off deliveries via Ukraine and TurkStream, compared to relatively stable imports in the first half of this year before Russia started gradually cutting volumes via Nord Stream in June until shutting down the pipeline in early September.

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