Despite planning their first collective output increase in over three years, OPEC+ producers are struggling to materially raise oil production in 2025, leaving the global crude market far tighter than expected. The disparity between stated targets and actual deliveries has helped push Brent crude prices back up to $68 per barrel, up from a low of $58 in April, highlighting growing tensions between market expectations and supply realities.

Officially, the OPEC+ coalition, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, intended to boost production by 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) between March and September. But data suggests actual increases are falling significantly short. Much of the shortfall stems from two factors: some countries are physically unable to increase production, while others are under punitive constraints imposed by the group for exceeding past quotas.

U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, significantly escalating tensions with New Delhi as bilateral trade talks collapse and Washington targets nations continuing to purchase Russian oil. The move marks one of the most serious ruptures in U.S.-India relations in recent memory and threatens to disrupt trade flows worth tens of billions of dollars annually.

The new duties, set to take effect 21 days after August 7, will raise tariffs on a wide range of Indian exports to as high as 50%, making them among the steepest imposed on any U.S. trading partner. Key sectors like textiles, gems, jewelry, and footwear, mainstays of India’s $87 billion export market to the U.S., are expected to bear the brunt of the impact.

Although recent U.S. restrictions on ethane exports to China were rescinded within weeks, their lasting impact on trust and commercial ties may prove far more enduring. Top U.S. exporter Energy Transfer warned Wednesday that the temporary curbs, which disrupted shipments and supply chains, have damaged the U.S. industry’s reputation for reliability, particularly with key Chinese petrochemical buyers.

Energy Transfer co-CEO Marshall McCrea said during a post-earnings call that even though restrictions on ethane exports were lifted last month, they “put a little bit of a black eye on us, on our industry, on our country.” The company, one of the leading shippers of U.S. ethane abroad, noted that Chinese buyers are likely to be more hesitant in future deals, potentially complicating long-term commercial relationships.