Europe’s LNG position is tightening again, and the problem is not simply that imports are slipping. It is that they are slipping at the same time that the region needs to refill storage for next winter and while Asia is pulling more flexible cargoes eastward.

European LNG imports fell for a second straight month, with May volumes on track to dip by more than 1% year on year after a 7% drop in April. The decline is modest compared with some of the larger disruptions in oil and refined products, but the timing makes it important.

The EU is moving toward a more coordinated response to China’s manufacturing overcapacity, and the discussion marks a significant escalation from sector-by-sector trade disputes to a broader economic-security debate. EU officials are weighing whether existing tools are enough to protect European industry from a surge of Chinese goods, and whether new instruments are needed.

The European Commission is expected to hold an internal debate on China on May 29, with the issue likely to reach EU leaders at their June summit. Brussels is considering rules that would force companies in critical sectors to reduce reliance on Chinese suppliers, including requirements to source key components from multiple countries. 

Australia’s order forcing China-linked investors to sell their stakes in Northern Minerals is a clear sign that critical minerals are now being treated as national-security assets, not ordinary mining investments. Treasurer Jim Chalmers ordered six shareholders to divest from the rare earths developer within 14 days, citing concerns that Chinese-linked parties were attempting to gain control of the company.

Five of the targeted shareholders are registered in China or Hong Kong, while another is registered in the British Virgin Islands. The move follows an earlier 2024 divestment order and a subsequent court case over non-compliance. 

China’s April data suggest that the economy’s first-quarter momentum is already fading, and that the Iran war has arrived at an awkward moment for Beijing. Industrial output rose only 4.1% from a year earlier, down sharply from 5.7% in March and below expectations for 5.9%, marking the weakest pace since July 2023.

Retail sales were even more concerning, rising just 0.2%, the slowest gain since December 2022 and far below the 2% economists had expected. Fixed-asset investment contracted 1.6% in the first four months, reversing the modest growth seen in the first quarter.

U.S. drill-bit manufacturers are now adapting to a critical-minerals shock that could complicate the very oil-supply response global markets are hoping for. Tungsten prices have surged from around $600 per metric ton unit in October to roughly $3,000, driven by Chinese export curbs, tighter supply and rising military demand.

Because tungsten can account for up to 75% of the materials in some oilfield drill bits, manufacturers are shifting more production toward steel-body designs to contain costs. The timing is awkward for U.S. shale. Oil prices above $100 a barrel should normally encourage North American producers to drill more, especially as the Iran war disrupts Middle Eastern supply and the market looks to the U.S. for replacement barrels.

Southeast Asia’s green economy is entering a paradoxical phase: demand for clean power, data infrastructure and electric mobility is rising fast, but the region’s grids, regulations and project-delivery systems are not keeping up. Power demand from green industrial parks, data centers and electric vehicles will grow by more than 100 terawatt-hours over the next three to four years, requiring more than $200 billion in investment.

More than half of that capital is expected to go toward data centers, whose operators are willing to pay a premium if it helps them avoid grid-connection delays. The opportunity is large. Southeast Asia’s green economy is currently valued at around $290 billion and is on track to reach about $430 billion by 2030.

The Iran war is now moving decisively from commodity markets into sovereign bond markets, and that makes the crisis much harder for investors and governments to treat as temporary noise. Government bonds from the United States, Japan and the euro zone sold off again on Monday as the renewed rise in oil prices reinforced fears that the energy shock will feed into broader inflation and force central banks back toward rate hikes.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose as high as 4.631%, its highest since February 2025, while the two-year yield touched a 14-month high and the 30-year yield climbed to 5.159%. The shift in rate expectations is the most important part of the story. Before the war, investors were still looking for rate cuts this year.

The Iran war is now showing up clearly in corporate balance sheets, and the cost is already large enough to rank alongside the major business shocks of the past decade. Corporate statements show that the conflict has cost listed companies in the U.S., Europe and Asia at least $25 billion so far, with 279 companies citing the war as a reason for defensive measures such as price increases, production cuts, dividend suspensions, furloughs, fuel surcharges and requests for government aid.

The total is still below the more than $35 billion companies had flagged from Trump’s 2025 tariffs by last October, but it is rising quickly and appears to be moving through the economy in a broader, more inflationary way. The mechanism is straightforward but far-reaching. The war has pushed oil above $100 a barrel, disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and tightened supplies of refined fuels, LNG, petrochemicals, fertilizers, helium, aluminium, polyethylene and other industrial inputs.