The world’s rising appetite for electricity is no longer a drag on the energy transition. It is becoming one of its main accelerators. Demand from data centers, electric vehicles, industrial electrification, population growth and higher incomes is pushing power consumption higher almost everywhere, but the technologies best positioned to meet that demand are increasingly solar, wind and batteries rather than coal or oil-linked systems.

Solar could become the world’s largest source of power in 2032, while wind moves into second place in 2034, pushing coal out of its current top position. The significance of that forecast is that it does not depend on governments fully delivering their most ambitious climate promises.

China’s aluminium smelters are taking full advantage of the global shortage created by the Iran war, but the boom is starting to reveal its own limits. Daily output reached a record 129,000 tons last month, supported by high margins and the disruption of Middle Eastern supply.

The Middle East normally accounts for roughly 9% of global aluminium production, and the war has curtailed Gulf output and exports, pushing international prices higher and giving Chinese producers a powerful incentive to run as hard as possible. 

China’s new steel capacity-swap rules mark a harder attempt to tackle one of the country’s most persistent industrial problems: too much steelmaking capacity chasing too little profitable demand. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set a nationwide replacement ratio of at least 1.5:1 for ironmaking and steelmaking capacity, meaning companies must retire at least 1.5 tons of old capacity for every ton of new capacity they build.

For mergers and restructurings, the minimum ratio is 1.25:1. The rules broadly follow the draft released in October and are designed to ensure that new projects result in a net reduction in total capacity rather than simply replacing old furnaces with new ones on a near one-for-one basis.

The European Commission is preparing to treat fertiliser as both a food-security issue and an industrial-security issue. Under the draft plan, Brussels is considering giving fertiliser producers extra free CO2 permits if they increase domestic production of bio-based, circular or low-carbon fertilisers.

The goal is to reduce the carbon-cost burden on the sector while encouraging more European-made supply at a time when the Iran war has driven up gas, freight and fertiliser prices. The plan is due to be published on May 19 and would feed into the broader EU carbon-market review expected in July.

Australia’s decision to secure jet fuel from China and urea from Brunei shows how the Iran war is pushing even resource-rich economies into emergency supply management. Canberra has arranged three Chinese jet fuel cargoes totaling more than 600,000 barrels, or around 100 million liters, with deliveries beginning in early June. It has also secured 38,500 metric tons of agricultural-grade urea from Brunei to support farmers.

Both purchases are being backed through a new A$7.5 billion fuel and fertilizer security facility designed to help transport and agriculture cope with wartime supply stress. The jet fuel cargoes are modest in annual terms, equivalent to about 1% of Australia’s yearly consumption, but their significance is larger than the volume.

The EU is close to implementing its side of last year’s trade bargain with Washington, but the process has exposed how fragile the agreement really is. Negotiators from the European Parliament and member states are expected to finalize legislation cutting EU duties on U.S. industrial goods and granting preferential access to some American agricultural and seafood products.

That would allow Brussels to meet Donald Trump’s July 4 deadline and avoid his threat to raise tariffs on EU exports, including autos, to much higher levels. Under the Turnberry deal struck last July, the U.S. agreed to apply a 15% tariff on most EU goods in exchange for the EU removing duties on key U.S. imports.

Germany’s launch of the Uniper sale process is more than a privatization exercise. It is an attempt to close one of the most dramatic chapters of Europe’s 2022 energy crisis while keeping state control over assets Berlin now regards as essential to national security.

The government has invited potential bidders for its 99.12% stake and is considering either a direct sale or a stock-market listing, but it has made clear that it wants to retain a blocking minority of 25% plus one share. Bidders have until June 12 to submit letters of intent to JPMorgan and UBS.

South Korea and Japan’s new energy cooperation initiative shows how the Iran war is forcing Asia’s largest import-dependent economies to treat fuel security as a shared strategic problem rather than a purely national procurement issue.

President Lee Jae Myung and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi agreed in Andong to expand cooperation on LNG and crude oil supply, including stockpiling and swap arrangements for crude, refined products and LNG. The two leaders framed the move as a response to instability in Middle Eastern energy markets and the wider disruption of supply chains caused by the Gulf conflict.