The Trump-Xi summit appears to have strengthened the fragile U.S.-China truce, but it did not fundamentally resolve the disputes that make the relationship unstable. The main achievement was political: both leaders were able to present the meeting as constructive, with Trump praising Xi and China offering symbolic warmth, including a rare tour of Zhongnanhai. Trump left Beijing with warm words but no major breakthrough on trade or clear Chinese help to end the Iran war.

Iran was one of the most important topics because the war has become a shared economic problem even if Washington and Beijing approach it from very different positions. Trump said he discussed lifting sanctions on Chinese companies that buy Iranian oil, and that he and Xi agreed Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons and must reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

China’s steel sector is seeing a rare improvement in profitability, but the rebound looks more tactical than structural. 64% of Chinese steel mills are now profitable, the highest share since August and only the second time since October 2024 that profitability has moved above this level. The improvement is being supported by firmer downstream consumption, temporary supply restraint from environmental curbs and maintenance, and stronger export conditions since April as overseas mills raised prices.

The recovery is significant because China’s steel industry has spent years under pressure from weak property demand, chronic oversupply and thin margins. The real estate downturn has reduced demand for construction steel, while global protectionism and slowing domestic activity have made it harder for mills to maintain pricing power.

China’s commodity profile has changed so much that old models built around property, steel, cement and coal no longer capture the country’s real demand structure. China remains the world’s largest power consumer and one of the most important buyers of raw materials, but the engines behind that demand are shifting. The old model was dominated by construction, real estate, infrastructure and heavy industry.

The new model is messier: property is shrinking, services are larger, construction-material demand is weaker, but high-end manufacturing, clean technology, batteries, EVs, nuclear equipment and AI-linked exports are expanding. Analysts now need new models to track this transition rather than relying on the old property-cycle framework.

India’s new defence and energy agreements with the UAE show how the Iran war is pushing New Delhi to deepen ties with Gulf partners that can provide both strategic reassurance and practical supply security. During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Abu Dhabi, the two sides agreed on a framework for a strategic defence partnership and signed pacts covering strategic petroleum reserves and liquefied petroleum gas supply.

The defence framework includes industrial cooperation, advanced technology, training, exercises, maritime security, cyber defence, secure communications and information exchange. The timing is central. India is one of the world’s largest energy importers and remains highly exposed to the disruption of Gulf shipping caused by the Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

India’s April trade data show how quickly the Iran war is feeding through the country’s external accounts. The merchandise trade deficit widened to $28.38 billion, well above economists’ expectations of $26.5 billion and sharply higher than March’s $20.67 billion gap.

The main reason was a surge in imports, which climbed to a six-month high of $71.94 billion as crude purchases jumped 53% from March to $18.63 billion. Merchandise exports also rose strongly, reaching $43.56 billion, but the export increase was not enough to offset the oil-driven import bill.

The UAE’s decision to fast-track a new West-East oil pipeline is a strategic response to the single biggest vulnerability in Gulf energy: dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Abu Dhabi has ordered ADNOC to accelerate construction so the pipeline can begin operating in 2027 and roughly double the country’s export capacity through Fujairah, the port on the Gulf of Oman that sits outside the strait.

UAE’s existing Habshan-Fujairah pipeline can move up to 1.8 million barrels per day, and that the new line is intended to vastly expand the country’s ability to export crude without sending tankers through Hormuz. The timing is central. Since the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, the strait has been effectively shut or severely constrained, disrupting roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies and sending energy prices sharply higher.

Toyota’s proposed $2 billion expansion in San Antonio is another sign that global automakers are reinforcing U.S. production capacity as trade policy, tariffs and supply-chain risk make local manufacturing more strategically valuable. The company has filed for approval to build a new vehicle assembly line at its existing Texas complex, with construction expected to begin by the end of 2026 and production targeted for 2030.

The plan, called Project Orca, includes $1.05 billion for buildings and property improvements and $950 million for machinery and equipment, and is expected to create about 2,000 jobs between 2028 and 2030. The investment would deepen Toyota’s footprint in one of its most important markets. The San Antonio plant already produces the Tundra pickup and Sequoia SUV, two large vehicles central to Toyota’s North American strategy.

Europe’s aviation sector is trying to project calm over jet fuel supply, but the confidence is as much about protecting summer demand as it is about physical availability. Airlines, airports and tour operators are telling travelers that there is no immediate reason to fear cancellations or shortages, even though jet fuel prices have roughly doubled from prewar levels and some regional stocks are close to historic lows.

TUI, Lufthansa, Wizz Air and Ryanair have all downplayed the risk of near-term disruption, while acknowledging that prices remain the real problem. The industry has strong reasons to sound reassuring. The northern-hemisphere summer is the most important earnings season for European airlines and tour operators.