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  • Europe’s equities rally broadens as miners and utilities hit record highs

    The move by European mining and utilities stocks to fresh all-time highs is a meaningful signal that the rally in European equities is broadening beyond the sectors that led earlier phases of the upswing. Both sectors surpassed their previous peaks from 2008 on Wednesday, joining oil and gas, which had already broken above its 2007 high earlier in the week.

    That combination matters because it suggests investors are not simply chasing one theme, but rotating across multiple “real asset” and infrastructure-linked sectors at the same time. The background to this is that European equities have already been on a strong run, with the STOXX 600 repeatedly setting records in early 2026.

    February 25, 2026
  • Supreme Court setback weakens Trump’s tariff timing, not his trade agenda

    The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision did not end Trump-era tariff pressure, but it did change the balance of leverage and timing in a way that major trading partners, especially in Asia, are now trying to exploit. Washington’s most sweeping second-term tariffs were knocked back on legal grounds, while Trump simultaneously signaled he would rebuild tariff pressure using other authorities.

    That leaves countries from the EU to China in a familiar but more complicated position: they may have gained short-term negotiating space, but they still face a U.S. administration committed to tariffs as a core policy instrument.

    February 25, 2026
  • Germany’s China policy shifts toward engagement with strategic guardrails

    Merz’s opening tone in Beijing is less a contradiction than a sign of how Germany’s China policy is being rebalanced under pressure. What you’re seeing is a deliberate attempt to hold two lines at once: preserve and even deepen commercial ties with China where possible, while more openly framing dependence on Chinese supply chains, especially critical minerals and strategic industrial inputs, as a national and European vulnerability.

    Merz is emphasizing the importance of the bilateral relationship while also stressing the need for fairer trade and reduced dependencies. Germany’s China debate has moved well beyond the earlier argument over whether Berlin should be “tough” or “pragmatic.”

    February 25, 2026
  • Data center boom collides with U.S. power buildout limits

    The U.S. electricity grid could have difficulty keeping up with the AI boom, but it is more consequential than a simple “utilities can’t keep up” story. What is emerging is a collision between two very different clocks: the hyperscalers’ capital deployment cycle, which can move in quarters, and the power system buildout cycle, which often moves in years.

    Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta have collectively outlined plans to spend more than $600 billion on AI in 2026, but the enabling infrastructure, including generation, transmission, interconnection approvals, turbines, and local grid upgrades, is nowhere near as scalable on that timeline. The result is that AI competition is increasingly becoming a power-infrastructure problem, not just a compute or chip problem.

    February 25, 2026
  • India’s solar export push stalls under U.S. trade penalties

    The U.S. move to impose steep preliminary countervailing duties on solar imports from India, Indonesia and Laos is a serious setback for India’s attempt to establish itself as a durable alternative manufacturing hub for the American solar market.

    The U.S. Commerce Department found manufacturers in the three countries benefited from state support that distorted competition, with Indian exporters facing preliminary countervailing duties of 125.87%. For Indian firms, this is not a marginal tariff increase but a potentially market-closing measure in what has become their most attractive export destination.

    February 25, 2026
  • DR Congo quotas show China’s refining power doesn’t guarantee cobalt security

    China’s cobalt refining position is still formidable, with the International Energy Agency estimates putting its share of global refined cobalt output at 78% in 2024, but the Democratic Republic of Congo’s export controls have shown that refining dominance does not equal supply security if raw material inflows can be throttled upstream.

    Congo’s quota regime and implementation delays created a real squeeze for Chinese buyers despite China’s processing scale. Congo is the world’s dominant cobalt producer and the main source of cobalt hydroxide and other intermediate products that Chinese refiners convert into battery chemicals and metal.

    February 25, 2026
  • Temporary steel curbs add new noise to China demand debate

    The planned production curbs for northern Chinese steel mills ahead of the annual parliamentary meeting are a familiar policy ritual, but they matter this year because they arrive at a time when the market is unusually sensitive to signals about Chinese steel output, inventories, and raw-material demand.

    Some mills in north China have been asked to voluntarily cut blast-furnace output by at least 30% from March 4 to March 11 to help preserve air quality during the parliamentary session that begins March 5. Steel futures responded positively, with rebar and hot-rolled coil both rising on the Shanghai Futures Exchange.

    February 25, 2026
  • Zimbabwe fast-tracks lithium export ban in abrupt policy shock

    Zimbabwe’s abrupt suspension of exports of all raw minerals and lithium concentrates is a far more consequential move than a routine administrative tightening. On paper, the government is framing the decision as a temporary anti-leakage and compliance measure, citing “malpractices” in export processes and applying the order immediately, including to minerals already in transit.

    But in practical terms, the decision also accelerates Harare’s long-running push to force more in-country processing and capture a larger share of value from its mineral wealth, especially lithium. The ban will remain in place until further notice and that the mines ministry linked it directly to a broader effort to curb leakages and realign export procedures.

    February 25, 2026

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