Europe’s renewed energy squeeze is becoming a test of economic resilience and political credibility. Low gas reserves and sharply higher transport fuel costs are exposing governments to several pressures at once: households face another deterioration in purchasing power, manufacturers confront rising operating expenses, and public finances limit the scope for relief.

The danger extends beyond an expensive winter. A prolonged shortage could weaken investment, complicate monetary policy and strengthen parties that argue Europe’s foreign policy commitments have become economically unaffordable.

The approaching Trump-Xi summit is likely to test whether the United States and China can exchange selective commercial concessions while preserving their broader strategic rivalry. Agricultural purchases offer Washington visible gains for farmers, energy trade creates opportunities to reopen disrupted business, and rare earth supplies give Beijing influence over critical American industries.

Sanctions add another negotiating instrument, linking bilateral commerce to US policy toward Iran and Russia. These issues create room for an agreement, although each operates through a different combination of political pressure and commercial incentives.

Europe’s depleted gas reserves are increasing the risk that a cold winter will trigger another costly contest with Asia for LNG. Disrupted exports from the Persian Gulf have already tightened global availability, leaving importers with fewer options for meeting seasonal demand.

The danger is particularly acute if Europe and Northeast Asia experience prolonged cold simultaneously. Under those conditions, higher prices would redistribute scarce cargoes among buyers while forcing some industries and consumers to reduce consumption.