The pattern has repeated so reliably that it has become an industry joke. Washington imposes duties on solar imports from one country, production relocates, imports surge from somewhere new, domestic manufacturers file another petition, and the cycle begins again.

Fourteen years and four rounds of litigation have produced a map of the process: China in 2012, China and Taiwan in 2015, Southeast Asian factories with Chinese ownership caught in 2023, full penalty tariffs on Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam in 2025, and India, Indonesia and Laos now. The polysilicon proclamation signed on August 6 is an attempt to stop playing the game by changing the board.

There is a version of energy dominance that no one in Washington wanted. American refiners are running flatter out than at any point since 2018, exporting record volumes of diesel, and posting the largest profits in their history. That is exactly what dominance looks like when the rest of the world’s fuel-making capacity has been bombed, droned or shut down.

It is also politically intolerable, because the same scarcity generating those profits has pushed the average American gallon to 4.06 dollars three months before the midterms. The President wanted energy dominance and low prices. He has the first, delivered by the second’s absence.

Copper touched 14,000 dollars a tonne in London on Tuesday, a two-month high, and the immediate cause is not a mine failure, a strike or a demand surge. It is a document that has not been published. The Commerce Department was scheduled to deliver its recommendation on refined copper tariffs by June 30, the deadline passed in silence, and in the five weeks since, more copper has flowed into the United States than in any month since records began.

The market has decided that ambiguity is bullish, and it has priced it accordingly. The import figure is the standout. More than 200,000 tonnes arrived at American ports in July, the largest monthly inflow in shipping data going back to 2014. Combined Comex and LME inventories in the United States now exceed 740,000 tonnes, with LME data showing an additional 110,860 tonnes sitting in private storage at American ports outside the exchange warrant system.