Hafnium has slipped from metallurgical obscurity into the center of a three-way squeeze: geopolitics, the AI power boom, and a tiny, brittle supply chain that was never designed for prime time. Spot offers in Rotterdam flirting with €6,300–€7,000/kg (near the 2023 peak) tell you two things at once: there isn’t much hafnium to begin with, and the small pool that exists has become harder to move since China tightened dual-use export controls.

With Chinese unwrought exports reportedly collapsing by roughly 90% from January to September, European buyers are bidding against U.S. demand that’s even tighter, pushing American prices above $7,000/kg. This is what scarcity looks like in a byproduct market: there is no tap to open, only a trickle to coax.

OPEC+ has chosen to inch open the taps again in November, adding roughly 137,000 barrels per day, essentially a carbon copy of October’s step. After several years of supply restraint to nurse prices and rebuild cohesion, the coalition has spent 2025 edging in the opposite direction, lifting targets by more than 2.7 million barrels per day in total.

The stated logic is straightforward: reclaim market share ceded to faster-moving rivals, especially U.S. shale, even if that means living with softer prices for a while. That posture arrives just as futures markets are fretting about a fourth-quarter surplus, with Brent slipping beneath $65 and analysts sketching a comfortable cushion of barrels into 2026 on the back of weaker demand and swelling non-OPEC supply.

Saudi Arabia’s foray into the global mining industry has garnered attention as the country aims to invest significant capital in diversifying its economy away from oil and gas. Seeking access to critical minerals like copper, nickel, lithium, and iron ore, essential for electric vehicle batteries…