Donald Trump’s rhetorical pivot from threatening the annihilation of Iranian civilization to proclaiming a historic day for world peace, executed within the span of twenty-four hours, has produced the most dramatic single-session oil price movement since the conflict began, with Brent crude plunging nearly fifteen percent to ninety-four dollars per barrel as financial markets rushed to price in the possibility of a restored Strait of Hormuz.

Yet beneath the headline relief lies a far more sobering assessment: even the most optimistic resolution of the US-Iranian conflict would leave the global energy system operating under conditions fundamentally different from those that prevailed before February 28, with structural damage, behavioral shifts, and risk repricing that will persist for years.

The U.S. Interior Department announced Friday that it will begin collecting public input on a new five-year offshore oil and gas leasing program, potentially opening new areas—including the Arctic—to drilling as part of President Donald Trump’s push to maximize domestic energy production.

The move signals a major expansion of federal energy policy under Trump, who has made revitalizing fossil fuel output a cornerstone of his economic and national security agenda. The Interior Department emphasized that the upcoming leasing plan could redefine offshore energy development zones, with revisions under consideration for existing boundaries of Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) areas and the inclusion of a newly designated region in the High Arctic.

Japan’s substantial dependence on Middle Eastern oil and gas has once again come under scrutiny, particularly due to the country’s diplomatic stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict. As the world’s fourth-largest oil buyer, Japan imports a significant 95% of its crude oil from the…