Saudi Arabia to extend 1 million barrel oil cut into October
- August 24, 2023
- Posted by: Quatro Strategies
- Categories: Business & Politics, Middle East, Oil & Gas
Saudi Arabia is likely to extend its voluntary 1 million-barrel oil supply cut for the third consecutive month into October, according to predictions from five Wall Street analysts. The initial cuts appear to have been effective, with oil prices rising by about 15% in the past month to around $86 a barrel. Despite this, a gradual increase in oil prices has reversed in the past week due to concerns about weak economic data from China and the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium.
The current Brent crude prices of $82.71 are considered too low for Saudi Arabia, as the country needs oil prices at around $100 a barrel to balance its fiscal budget. This provides the country with further incentive to maintain tight supplies in the market. Richard Bronze, an analyst at consultancy Energy Aspects, has stated that Saudi Arabia is likely to extend the supply cut through October. The cautious approach is influenced by the weaker oil market conditions in the first half of the year, and the country will want to see a significant decline in global inventories before considering unwinding the additional cuts.
Analysts from brokerage PVM Oil and Saxo Bank have also speculated that a potential resumption of oil production from Iraq’s Kurdistan region might lead Saudi Arabia to withhold additional supplies to the market for the time being. Despite these uncertainties, oil markets are expected to tighten gradually, leading to an increase in prices as the months progress.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted a global oil shortage of approximately 1.7 million barrels per day during the second half of the year. Experts at Standard Chartered have forecasted a supply deficit of 2.81 million barrels per day in August, 2.43 million barrels per day in September, and over 2 million barrels per day in November and December. Their projections also suggest that global inventories will decrease by 310 million barrels by the end of 2023 and another 94 million barrels in the first quarter of 2024, contributing to higher oil prices. The experts anticipate that Brent prices will rise to $93 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
Interested in learning more?
Sign up for Top Insights Today
Top Insights Today delivers the latest insights straight to your inbox.
You will get daily industry insights on
Oil & Gas, Rare Earths & Commodities, Mining & Metals, EVs & Battery Technology, ESG & Renewable Energy, AI & Semiconductors, Aerospace & Defense, Sanctions & Regulation, Business & Politics.
Read more insights
Argentina’s lithium provinces looking to impose new tax on producers
Argentina, a significant player in the global lithium market and the fastest-growing producer of lithium, is exploring the possibility of imposing a new tax on lithium producers and mandating a reserved portion of production for national battery projects. The goal behind these potential measures is to tap into the profits of lithium companies and utilize those funds for crucial infrastructure development.
EU, Indonesia strengthen trade ties to navigate rising global protectionism
A political breakthrough has been reached to push forward the long-running EU-Indonesia free trade negotiations, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on Sunday. Speaking alongside Indonesia’s new President Prabowo Subianto, von der Leyen said the agreement, known as the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), would unlock fresh opportunities in critical sectors such as agriculture and the automotive industry.
“There’s a lot of untouched potential in our trade relationship, and therefore this agreement comes at the right time because it will open new markets,” von der Leyen told reporters at a joint press conference.
U.S. government stake in lithium mine signals new era of investment in critical minerals
Washington has crossed a new line in industrial policy: it isn’t just financing critical minerals projects anymore, it’s taking equity. The U.S. Department of Energy has secured penny-priced warrants equal to 5% of Lithium Americas and a separate 5% of Thacker Pass, the GM-backed Nevada mine slated to become the Western Hemisphere’s largest source of lithium.
The stake rides alongside the first $435 million draw on a previously approved $2.26 billion federal loan, and follows similar government equity forays in semiconductor and rare-earth firms. Markets got the message immediately; Lithium Americas’ U.S. shares surged as investors priced in not only cheaper capital, but a political anchor that lowers project risk.